The market of the future

When asked about the sales markets of the future, China probably springs to mind first and foremost – or the Asian region in general. And one would not be wrong to think so; after all, according to United Nations (UN) figures, Asia currently has a population of around 4.8 billion, and the trend is upwards. However, alongside Asia, there is another continent that we all too often fail to consider, and which – though not overnight, but certainly in the not-too-distant future – will grow into another major, if not the very sales market of the future: Africa.

Asia’s role as the driving force behind global agricultural trade is slowing down

Certainly, Asian countries will continue to shape global trade for many years to come with their rising per capita consumption of meat, dairy products and animal feed. And production shortfalls in China’s grain or processing sectors still have the potential to send prices for pork, milk powder or wheat soaring on the world market for some time to come. But those days are numbered. For the factor of ‘population dynamics’ is rapidly losing its significance – and in China’s case is even turning into the opposite. Conversely, Africa is gaining momentum and more than filling this gap. 

For instance, annual population growth in Asia has fallen by 30% to 350 million over the ten-year period from 2015 to 2025, compared with the previous decade. By 2035, the UN forecasts a further slowdown in growth to just 250 million. By then, China is likely to have lost a good 40 million inhabitants – a trend that will accelerate even further in the years that follow. 

Africa is emerging as the centre of population growth

In contrast to China, Africa’s population is showing an increasingly dynamic upward trend:

• 2005 to 2015: +275 million people;
• 2015 to 2025: +330 million people;
• Forecast to 2035: +360 million people.

This means that Africa is highly likely to reach a population of 1.9 billion in ten years’ time. And because the population in the rest of the world is growing ever more slowly or is even already in decline (such as in the EU), Africa’s share of global population growth will rise from 43% today to 55% by 2035 – by 2045, this figure could even reach two-thirds. This makes it clear: the consumers of the future are, quite literally, growing up in Africa. 

Looking at the centres of population growth on the African continent, a few countries stand out: Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Egypt are the countries with the fastest-growing populations. Other countries may be growing even faster in percentage terms, but they are much smaller. Taken together, the countries mentioned will have 160 million more inhabitants in ten years’ time than they do today. By way of comparison: the UN expects the remaining 49 countries on the continent to see a total increase of 140 million people.

Africa’s grain purchases will grow by 32 million tonnes over the coming decade.

As Africa’s population grows, so too does the demand for agricultural commodities

The continent is already unable to feed itself. Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Morocco are among the largest buyers of wheat on the world market. Nigeria, for example, is also becoming increasingly dependent on grain imports to feed its own population, a significant proportion of which comes from the EU. Whilst domestic demand across all cereal types has risen by around 50% since 2000 to a recent 34 million tonnes, the self-sufficiency rate has fallen from 86% to 72%. When it comes to rice, a staple food we in the EU hardly give a second thought to, no fewer than six African countries feature on the list of the 15 largest importers. 

The FAO estimates that Africa’s grain import requirements will increase by around a third compared to today, reaching 132 million tonnes by 2034. The projected additional demand of 32 million tonnes is exactly the same as the increase in imports forecast for Asia over the same period. The key difference is that whilst Asian countries primarily require maize as animal feed, Africa mainly needs wheat and rice to feed its population.

Meat consumption remains low, and the processing sector small

There is another difference compared to countries such as China, Vietnam or Thailand. Meat consumption and the livestock farming that underpins it will play only a minor role in Africa for the foreseeable future. Over the next ten years, meat consumption is expected to rise by a third to 31 million tonnes. However, this will be driven almost exclusively by ‘population growth’. According to the FAO, per capita consumption accounts for only 5% of this increase. Currently, average meat consumption in Africa stands at 9.6 kg (product weight per capita per year), which is just one-third of the global average. 

This is hardly surprising when one considers the economic situation: Those with little money and purchasing power tend to buy staple foods rather than comparatively expensive products such as meat (or cheese). And in around 30 African countries, the average purchasing power-adjusted gross domestic product is below US$5,000 per capita, with a further 16 countries ranging from US$5,000 to US$15,000. By way of comparison: according to the OECD, the global average in 2024 was around US$21,000 per capita, whilst in the EU it stood at US$62,000. 

To put it very simply: Africa has the raw materials to secure its food supply, but lacks the economic power to bring about a similar rise in incomes (and thus consumption) to that seen in China, for example.

In the coming years, Africa will need more cereals above all else

This mainly means more wheat and rice, but also maize, which in Africa is predominantly used for human consumption (rather than for animal feed or bioethanol production, as is the case in the rest of the world). The high dependence on rice imports (self-sufficiency rate of 60%) makes the continent vulnerable to potential crop failures among the major suppliers (almost two-thirds of all rice exports come from the top three: India, Vietnam and Thailand). In such a scenario, the result would be rising imports of alternatives such as wheat.

Livestock farming in Africa is not stagnating; it is growing at a manageable rate. Pork plays only a minor role in this. This is either because this animal is not eaten for traditional or religious reasons, or simply because it is too expensive. Added to this is the problem of animal diseases; after all, African swine fever did not get its name by chance. Beef and poultry, on the other hand, are far more significant for Africa. As in the rest of the world, production and demand for the comparatively inexpensive poultry meat are growing faster than for other types of meat, at around 4% per year in each case. Because the growth of the domestic industry cannot keep pace with demand, the FAO estimates that imports will rise by 1 million tonnes to 3.3 million tonnes over the coming decade (equivalent to one-fifth of the global trade volume expected for 2034).

The situation is somewhat different for beef. The persistently high self-sufficiency rate of 90% is keeping imports in check both now and in the future, and in the coming years imports are likely to remain only slightly above the level of recent years (an average of 0.9 million tonnes).

The demand for oilseed meal as a protein feed is growing

As domestic production cannot close the ever-widening supply gap, increasing imports, mainly of soya beans and soya meal, are foreseeable. Although vegetable oil production is also rising due to the increasing processing of oilseeds, this is still not enough to limit or even reduce import volumes. The FAO assumes that Africa, with its own production, will be able to cover around 60% of its domestic demand for vegetable oil in the coming years. Against the backdrop of a noticeable rise in consumption, this nevertheless amounts to a quarter increase in purchases on the world market to approximately 15 million tonnes in 2034.