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Natural resource scarcity: What can food and agriculture do differently?

Dr. Shenggen Fan, Director General, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington D.C. (USA) Es gilt das gesprochene Wort!

Growing natural resource scarcity and stresses present many challenges for global food and agriculture. Although agriculture stands as one of the largest consumers of natural resources, many opportunities exist to meet the world’s growing demands for food, feed, fiber, and fuel and at the same time lessen the negative environmental effects of intensified production. A “nexus” approach which minimizes the trade-offs between the water, land, energy, and agriculture sectors and which also promotes synergies must be adopted to tap these opportunities.   

Persistent global food and nutrition insecurity
Hunger and malnutrition still persist at significant levels across the globe. Nearly 870 million individuals on the planet are undernourished or roughly one in every eight people.[1] About 98 percent of these individuals live in developing countries. According to IFPRI’s 2012 Global Hunger Index, over 50 countries have levels of hunger that are “extremely alarming,” “alarming,” or “serious”, and most of these countries are in Asia or Africa south of the Sahara.[2] On top of this, more than two billion people suffer from hidden hunger—deficiencies in essential micronutrients such as vitamin A, iron, and iodine.[3] Hidden hunger has the potential to weaken the physical and cognitive development of children and adolescents and to reduce the productivity of adults. An estimated 2 billion people in the world are anemic—mainly due to iron deficiency—including half of children under 5 years old and 42 percent of pregnant women, with most cases occurring in Africa and Southeast Asia. [4] The economic cost of micronutrient deficiencies is estimated to be 2.4 to 10 percent of gross domestic product in many developing countries.[5]
A complex mix of factors increasingly threatens the global food and agriculture system and thus food and nutrition security. Amongst these challenges are population growth and demographic changes—especially urbanization, rising incomes, high and volatile food and energy prices, natural resource scarcity, and climate change. By mid-century, the world’s population is expected to reach 9.3 billion, adding more than 2 billion people to the planet, many in developing countries.[6] At the same time, urban populations and global incomes are expected to increase significantly—urban populations are estimated to grow by 75 percent 2010 to 2050, mostly in Asia and Africa, and global per capita income is expected to nearly double by 2030.[7] This will result in a greater demand for more nutritious and diverse foods, with diet shifts from traditional staple foods such as cereals to high-value foods like fruits, vegetables, and meats.  Natural resource stresses—the focus of this piece—due to higher demands from a growing, urbanizing, and more affluent global population is increasingly one of the most pressing challenges to food and nutrition security. Climatic variability, which exacerbates natural resource constraints, is expected to complicate the global food and nutrition situation.
Growing natural resource scarcity and stresses
The increased and intensified use of many natural resources, including water, land, and energy, has been critical in boosting agricultural output in the past half century. Annual output growth has averaged about 2.3 percent between 1961 and 2009.[8] Agricultural intensification has taken a significant toll on the earth’s natural resources. The expanded use and often poor management of these resources has contributed to their scarcity and degradation which constitutes significant adverse environmental impacts and threatens food and nutrition security. Biodiversity loss is also of concern as growing demand for natural resources is modifying the world’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and will likely have significant implications for the way these systems provide services in the future.[9] Looking forward, natural resource scarcity is expected to increase as a result of a growing and more affluent global population.
About 9 percent of global renewable water resources are withdrawn for human uses—of this, 70 percent is withdrawn for irrigation.[10] Water withdrawals for agriculture have been on the rise, particularly with the doubling of the world’s irrigated area in the last five decades.[11] Since agriculture accounts for a significant portion of the earth’s water use, consuming 70 percent of freshwater sources,[12] it is vulnerable to water scarcity, but it also contributes to the problem. Competing demands for water from non-agricultural uses such as industrial, household, and environmental uses, add to the challenge of sustaining future food production. Under an assumption of business as usual practices, practically all users will make enormous demands on water resources by 2025.[13] As a result, total global water withdrawals in 2025 are expected to rise by 22 percent above 1995 withdrawals.
Increasing competition for water and rising water scarcity will constrain current availability of water for irrigation as well as expansion of irrigated area. Irrigation now accounts for 20 percent of all cultivated land and 40 percent of total agricultural production.[14] However, 15 to 35 percent of global irrigation withdrawals are estimated to be nonsustainable.[15] Irrigation has been instrumental in increasing agricultural yields and output and has also in stabilizing food production and prices.[16] Yet, current projections indicate that only 66 percent of irrigated water demand is likely to be met by 2050.[17] Intersectoral competition for water is also expected to increase dramatically. Water demand from nonirrigation uses such as domestic, industrial, and livestock uses, is projected to more than double by 2050, with much of the demand coming from developing countries.[18]
Water resources are not uniformly distributed around the world. Currently, 36 percent of the global population lives in water-scarce areas. This amounts to roughly 2.4 billion individuals, many of which reside in developing countries and are extremely vulnerable due to low adaptive capacity.[19] In many parts of the Middle East and South Asia, and some parts of East Asia and Africa, water stress can be particularly high. Moreover, nearly a quarter of the world’s GDP is produced in areas experiencing water stress, making water scarcity a significant concern for economic development. Furthermore, 39 percent of the world’s grain—staple crops which make up a large portion of calorie consumption for the world’s poor—is produced with methods of water use that are considered unsustainable. Thus, current water productivity levels will not be sufficient to ensure sustainability and reduce risks to people, economies, and agriculture and food systems. By 2050, 52 percent of the global population, 45 percent of global GDP, and 49 percent of global grain production will be at risk as a result of water stress.[20]
Water pollution is also another considerable issue. Water quality impairments from both humans (such as salinization, acidification, and metal pollutants) and the natural environment (such as arsenal and fluoride) are expected to cause significant stress for agricultural production and economic development.
Today, cultivated systems cover 25 percent of the global land surface—this includes crop production for food, as well as feed, fuel, and fiber.[21] During the last five decades, land used for cultivation has increased by 12 percent.[22] Sizeable increases in agriculture output in the past have come from both land expansion and yield increases. However, arable land per capita has been decreasing. Between 1970 and 2000, global arable land per capita declined by about 65 percent.[23] By 2050, global arable land per capita is expected to decline further by more than 50 percent.
It is projected that 80 percent of crop production growth in developing countries would come from intensification in the form of higher yields (71 percent) and increasing cropping intensities[1] (8 percent), and land expansion (21 percent).[24] In land-scare regions such as South Asia and Near East/North Africa, the share of intensification deriving from higher yields increases to 95 percent and 100 percent.[25] As a result, higher crop productivity would have to compensate for the expected decline in arable land in these regions. Today, there is little or no room for land expansion in more densely populated areas, particularly in developing countries.[26] But land expansion is likely to remain an important source of crop production growth in many parts of Africa, south of the Sahara and Latin America, although to a lesser degree than in the past. For the future, the priority has to be on increasing agricultural productivity versus land expansion, in order for agriculture to meet the world’s growing needs.
Land degradation is severe in many parts of the world. About 24 percent of global land area has been affected by land degradation—this is equivalent to the annual loss of roughly 1 percent of global land area which could produce about 1 percent of annual global grain production.[27] This has serious implications for the livelihoods and food and nutrition security of poor people in developing countries; as nearly half of the world’s poorest depend on degraded lands.[28] In Africa, south of the Sahara, for example, the cost of land degradation could amount to as much as 10 percent of the continent’s GDP. Immediate causes of degradation include biophysical causes, such as rainfall, wind, and temperature, and unsustainable land management practices, such as deforestation, soil nutrient mining, and cultivation on steep topography.[29] Underlying causes which lead to these forms of degradation include population density, poverty, and access to agricultural extension, infrastructure, and markets, as well as policies that encourage land degrading practices. Distortions to trade policies, price policies for agricultural output, and input subsidies have also contributed to land degradation.[30] Land degradation can reduce crop yields and increase production costs because farmers need to apply more fertilizers and other inputs to offset losses in yields.[31]
Energy challenges present several concerns for food security, most notably in relation to rising energy prices—oil prices are expected to nearly double 2010 to 2035.[32] Rising energy prices make alternative energy sources more profitable, including biofuels. Biofuel production is expected to increase by 50 percent before the end of the decade. As energy prices climb, increased demand is expected for biofuels. This will put pressure on already scarce resources needed to produce food, namely land and water, and promote food-fuel competition. Next to biofuels, rising energy prices increase the cost of agricultural production for many farmers. Increasingly, critical components of production, including tillage, planting, and harvesting, have become dependent on the energy sector. In addition, the price of energy influences the price of many agricultural inputs, including water, fertilizer, transportation, and storage. This can significantly affect both the cost of production and market prices for food. Additionally, higher energy prices can also affect the use of water resources by making it more expensive, for example, to extract and convey irrigation water in the case of pump irrigation.[33] Energy access also remains a challenge, as many low-income and rural individuals do not have access modern energy sources to support activities which help better their livelihoods, such as mechanical power for agriculture, lighting, and heating. Roughly 1.5 billion lack access to electricity globally, with the highest proportions in Africa, south of the Sahara and South Asia.[34]
Sustainable intensification for meeting food and agriculture requirements
Sustainable intensification will be critical to meet the world’s growing demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel; preserve the planet’s natural resources, and protect biodiversity. In this regard, greater investments in agricultural R&D as well as integrated natural resource management are required. Well-designed agricultural productivity-enhancing investments make it plausible to meet rising demand from existing natural resources and at the same time reduce the negative environmental effects of increased production.[35]
IFPRI’s IMPACT model (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural of Commodities and Trade),[2] has been used to assess plausible scenarios that can guide actions needed to meet the needs of a growing world population; reduce hunger, poverty, and malnutrition; and protect the earth’s natural resource base. For example, IFPRI researchers show that a comprehensive policy and investment scenario—which comprises of increased investments in agricultural R&D; higher investments in irrigation infrastructure; enhanced natural resource management policies; and reduced barriers to agricultural marketing—brings about the greatest impacts on food and nutrition security.[36] This scenario leads to improvements in key food and nutrition security indicators, including yield growth, developing-country agricultural output, calorie availability, and child malnutrition. In addition, it generates spillover effects for developed countries. Similar research examines five different types of productivity enhancements to determine which one has the greatest effect on human well-being in 2050 compared to a 2050 baseline. The findings suggest that an overall increase in crop productivity had the biggest impact on human wellbeing—reducing malnutrition and increasing average daily kilocalorie availability.[37]
Table 1 presents selected indicators for conventional and sustainable world scenarios using IFPRI’s IMPACT model.[38]  The conventional world scenario in 2050 assumes business as usual paths and actions—continuation of recent trends in population and economic growth, including limited investments in agricultural R&D as well as land, water, and energy efficiency.
It reflects higher agricultural R&D and social investments. In contrast to the conventional world scenario, the sustainable world scenario entails an integrated approach that takes into consideration the competing demands for limited natural resources as well as the environmental consequences on agricultural production. In particular, the sustainable world scenario puts emphasis on water, land, and energy conservation through increased investments in technological innovations and higher resource-use efficiency. This view of sustainability also assumes higher economic growth and lower population growth, among others.
Under a sustainable world scenario, for example, average grain prices are almost 40 percent lower in 2050 compared to a conventional world scenario. Lower food prices in a sustainable world are expected to improve affordability and access to food, thereby raising daily per capita calorie availability by 47 percent. In addition, total harvested crop area contracts in 2050, compared to the conventional world scenario in which area expansion occurs. Total water withdrawals also decline substantially with improvements in water-use efficiency (not shown in table). The number of malnourished children in a sustainable world also decreases by more than half, in comparison to a conventional world.
Table 1. Selected indicators for conventional and sustainable world scenarios

2030 conventional worlds
2050 conventional worlds
2030 sustainable worlds
2050 sustainable worlds
Area-weighted grain prices, $US per ton
Total crop harvested area, thousand hectares
Developing country calorie availability, per person per day
Malnourished children worldwide, millions

Source: Adapted from UNEP 2012 with data from new IMPACT model projections; Nelson, G.C., Rosegrant, M.W., Palazzo, A., Gray, I., Ingersoll, C., Robertson, R., Tokgoz, S., Zhu, T., Sulser, T.B., Ringler, C., Msangi, S. and You, L. (2010). Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. Rosegrant, M.W., Ringler, C., Msangi, S., Sulser, T.B., Zhu, T. and Cline, S.A. (2008). International
Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model Description.
International Food Policy Research, Washington, DC.
A “nexus” approach for sustainable food security
Sustainable food security is now inextricably linked to water, land, and energy policies due to growing natural resource scarcity and stresses. What this suggests is that a “nexus” approach for meeting the requirements for food and agriculture is crucial. Adopting a holistic “nexus” approach to dealing with land, water, energy, and food can minimize the trade-offs which exist amid these areas due to isolated policy planning and help to utilize sectoral synergies which promote successful innovations in the aggregate. This will require greater levels among actors from each sector, including government ministries, civil society, and the private sector which promote collaborative policy design, implementation, and monitoring.[39]
Many poor and vulnerable individuals do not have access to water, land, and energy resources which allow them to improve their livelihoods and thus enhance food and nutrition security. In countries where access to water or property rights to land and water are limited or disputed, and where energy sources and access to sanitation are underdeveloped, high hunger levels are usually prevalent—as Figure 1. Increasing pressures on water, land, and energy make these resources more expensive for the poor and hinders their ability to access them, contributing to food and nutrition insecurity. Policy planning must therefore no longer keep in isolation food security and natural resources, as the two are strongly intertwined.
Figure 1. Energy use and access to food and sanitation by region

Source: von Grebmer, K., C. Ringler, M.W. Rosegrant, T. Olofinbiyi, D. Wiesmann, H. Fritschel, S. Badiane, M. Torero, Y. Yohannes, J. Thompson, C. von Oppeln, and J. Rahall. 2012. Global Hunger Index 2012. The Challenge of Hunger: Ensuring Sustainable Food Security Under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses. Bonn, Washington, DC, and Dublin: Deutsche Welthungerhilfe, International Food Policy Research Institute, and Concern Worldwide.
Making the “nexus” approach work for poor and vulnerable groups is extremely important. As a starting point, it is important to raise awareness on the linkages between the water, land, energy, and food sectors. For policy planning purposes, it is crucial to assess the water, land, and energy implications of current food security policies, and also assess the food security implications of water, land, and energy policies. Mechanisms for monitoring these implications, including new metrics, must be developed.
Scaling up investments that support a “nexus” approach is critical for ensuring sustainable food security. Increased investment in agricultural R&D and extension which advances and promotes resource efficient agricultural inputs and practices can help boost the sustainability and productivity of farms, while simultaneously increasing small farmer incomes. Technologies and practices such as increased nutrient use efficiency through plant breeding or slow-release fertilizers; integrated soil fertility management, as well as alternative wetting and drying for irrigated rice production should be promoted. Integrated land management practices, for example, play a key role in promoting sustainable land use and have proven to be more productive. Integrated soil nutrient management practices such as the combined use of inorganic fertilizer, mulching, and manure generate higher and more sustainable crop yields.[40]
Closing yield gaps between developed and developing countries, as well as between irrigated and rainfed crops, can help to reduce the stress global agriculture exerts on natural resources.[41] In the past, strategies focused on crop yield enhancement—a notable example is the rice varieties introduced throughout Asia during the Green Revolution. Today, many investments are being made in stress tolerant crops which are less susceptible to biotic and abiotic strains, such as pests and drought, thereby improving profitability of farming. The development and adoption of these types of technologies require supportive national research and extension systems as well as effective input and output markets. These technologies, however, have low adoption rates in developing countries, suggesting the crucial importance of enhancing knowledge and extension services.
Sustainable land management practices such as the use of manure and crop residues (organic inputs) will also be important to increase crop yields and improve soil ecology.[42] Research has shown that organic soil fertility management can reduce the amount of nitrogen fertilizer which is used, which in turn can reduce the water pollution that arises from excessive use of fertilizer.[43] Further, integrated soil fertility management, including use of organic inputs, improved varieties, and careful use of synthetic fertilizers has been shown to be more profitable than using each separately. Like technologies, the adoption rates of these practices remain low and agricultural advisory services will vital to facilitate adoption.
To increase water productivity, improvements to water-use efficiency are fundamental.   Opportunities to improving water-use efficiency are large in the agricultural sector as it is the largest consumer of water. Several measures exist, including improving water transport from source to farm and from farm gate to field by lining irrigation canals, as well as in water to crop application by adopting technologies such as modern drip or sprinkler irrigation systems as well as deficit irrigation systems.[44] In addition to improved irrigation efficiency, shifts from irrigated areas in water-scarce basins to areas in water-rich basin or shifts from irrigated to rain-fed crops can also improve the efficiency of water use. To improve energy-use efficiency, agricultural practices that save energy such as conservation tillage and improved fertilizer management must be adopted.
Strong institutions that support resource rights are also needed, as resource allocation systems which are not legally binding are highly susceptible to expropriation and can significantly complicate policy planning. Evidence shows that solid legal frameworks for resource allocation are critical in promoting and adoption strategies which preserve and make more efficient the use of key natural resources such as water and land.[45] This is especially true in developing countries and rural areas where natural resources are critical to the livelihoods of many. Such legal frame works, if administered effectively, can be used to employ economic incentives which promote resource-use efficiency. For example, water management pricing, taxes, subsidies, and quotas can influence users to conserve resources through the incentivized adoption of resource-efficient technologies and penalize those who undertake practices which are unsustainable.[46]
To ensure sustainable food security, food losses and waste along the entire food value chain must be addressed under the “nexus approach.” Roughly one third of all food produced for human consumption annually is lost or wasted,[47] leading to unsustainable use of natural resources. This constitutes a significant environmental impact, as many natural resources are squandered and greenhouse gas emissions are needlessly produced as a result. Reducing food losses and waste is an important element in increasing resource-use efficiency as such efforts may streamline agri-food supply chains and reduce the unnecessary use of resources such as water, energy, and land.[48] In developing countries, where food losses are the major concern, agri-food supply chains need to be strengthened to avoid losses. To do this, investments in infrastructure and transportation as well as in food and packaging industries will be crucial. Food waste—most common in developed countries and often occurring at the retail level—results from the demand for a large quantity and wide range of products as well as consumer standards which overemphasize appearance.[49] This consumer behavior has several implications, as it increases the total sum of food in the marketplace vulnerable to perishing and often encourages overconsumption.[50] Educating consumers through public awareness campaigns, for example, will be required to change people’s attitudes towards food waste.
To conclude, it is important to note that the silo approach to sustainable development is no more acceptable. Despite the fact that trade-offs exists between water, land, energy, and agriculture, it is important to explore and develop complementary solutions which minimize trade-offs and promote synergies across sectors. To improve food security sustainably, technological innovations in the agriculture, water, land, and energy sectors will be critical to increase productivity, provide adaptive buffers against emerging challenges, and enhance the nutritional value of food crops.

[1] Cropping intensities refer to the frequency with which crops are harvested from a cultivated area.
[2] The IMPACT model is designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security.

[1] FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), WFP (World Food Program) and IFAD (International Fund for Agricultural Development). 2012. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012: Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient to accelerate reduction of hunger and malnutrition. Rome.
[2] von Grebmer, K., C. Ringler, M.W. Rosegrant, T. Olofinbiyi, D. Wiesmann, H. Fritschel, S. Badiane, M. Torero, Y. Yohannes, J. Thompson, C. von Oppeln, and J. Rahall. 2012. Global Hunger Index 2012. The Challenge of Hunger: Ensuring Sustainable Food Security Under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses. Bonn, Washington, DC, and Dublin: Deutsche Welthungerhilfe, International Food Policy Research Institute, and Concern Worldwide.
[3] WHO (World Health Organization) and FAO. 2006. Guidelines on Food Fortification with Micronutrients. France: WHO.
[4] De Benoist, B., E. McLean, M. Cogswell, I. Egli, and D. Wojdyla. 2008. Worldwide prevalence of anaemia 1993–2005: WHO global database on anaemia. Geneva: World Health Organization.
[5] Stein, A. and M. Qaim. 2007. “The human and economic cost of hidden hunger.” Food and Nutrition Bulletin, 28:2 (125–134). 
[6] UN (United Nations). 2011. World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York.
[7] ERS USDA (Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture). 2012. “Real Historical and Projected GDP Per Capita and Growth Rates of GDP Per Capita for Baseline Countries/Regions 2000-2030.” ERS Data Products. Washington DC.
[8] Alejandro Nin Pratt, personal communication.
[9] UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2012. Global Environmental Outlook: Fifth Edition. Valletta: Progress Press Ltd.
[10] FAO. 2011. The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture: Managing Systems at Risk. Rome, Earthscan, and London.
[11] Ibid.
[12] Ibid.
[13] Rosegrant, M.W., X. Cai, and S. Cline. 2002. Global Water Outlook to 2025: Averting an Impending Crisis. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.
[14] Rosegrant, M.W., C. Ringler, T. Zhu. 2009. “Water for Agriculture: Maintaining Food Security Under Growing Scarcity.” Annual Review of Environment and Resources 34: 205-222.
[15] Ibid.
[16] Ibid.
[17] Nelson, G. C., M.W. Rosegrant, J. Koo, R. Robertson, T. Sulser, T. Zhu, C. Ringler, S. Msangi, A. Palazzo, M. Batka, M. Magalhaes, R. Valmonte-Santos, M. Ewing, and D. Lee. 2009. Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
[18] Rosegrant, M.W., C. Ringler, T. Zhu. 2009.
[19] Ringler, C., T. Zhu, S. Gruber, R. Treguer, A. Laurent, L. Addams, N. Cenacchi, and T. Sulser. 2011. “Sustaining Growth via Water Productivity: Outlook to 2030/2050.” International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. Mimeo.
[20] Ibid.
[21] von Grebmer, K., et al. 2012.
[22] FAO. 2011.
[23] Ibid.
[24] Bruinsma, J.2009. “The Resource Outlook to 2050: By How Much Do Land, Water Use and Crop Yields Need to Increase by 2050?” In Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 2050. Rome: FAO and ESDD. ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/012/ak542e/ak542e06.pdf.
[25] Ibid.
[26] Koohafkan, P., M. Salman, and C. Casarotto. 2011. Investment in Land and Water. SOLAW Background Thematic Report TR 17. Rome: FAO. 
[27] IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute). 2011. 2011 Global Food Policy Report. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
[28] Nkonya, E., N. Gerber, J. von Braun, A. De Pinto. 2011. Economics of Land Degradation: The Costs of Action versus Inaction. IFPRI Issue Brief 68. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
[29] Ibid.
[30] von Grebmer, K., M. Torero, T. Olofinbiyi, H. Fritschel, D. Wiesmann, Y. Yohannes, L Schofield, C von Oppeln. 2011. Global Hunger Index 2011. The Challenge of Hunger: Taming Price Spikes and Excessive Food Price Volatility. Cologne: DFS Druck.  
[31] Rosegrant, M. W., E. Nkonya, and R. A. Valmonte-Santos. 2009. “Food Security and Soil Water Management.” Encyclopedia of Soil
Science 1: 1–4.
[32] IEA (International Energy Agency). 2011. World Energy Outlook 2011. Paris.
[33] von Grebmer, K., et al. 2012.
[34] United Nations Development Programme. Human Development Report 2011. Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All. New York: United Nations.
[35] Nelson, G.C., M.W. Rosegrant, A. Palazzo, I. Gray, C. Ingersoll, R. Robertson, S. Tokgoz, T. Zhu, T.B. Sulser, C. Ringler, S. Msangi, and L. You. 2010. Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050. International Food Policy Research Institute. Washington, DC.
[36] Rosegrant, M.W., D. Ringler, T.B. Sulser, M. Ewing, A. Palazzo, T. Zhu, G.C. Nelson, J. Koo, R. Robertson, S. Msangi, and M. Batka. 2009. Agriculture and Food Security Under Global Change: Prospects for 2025/2050. Prepared for the Strategy committee of the CGIAR. International Food Policy Research, Washington, DC.
[37] Nelson, G.C., et al. 2010.
[38] UNEP 2012.
[39] von Grebmer, K., et al. 2012.
[40] Bryan, E., C. Ringler, B. Okoba, J. Koo, M. Herrero, and S. Silvestri. 2011. Agricultural Management for Climate Change Adaptation, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Agricultural Productivity: Insights from Kenya. IFPRI Discussion Paper 01098. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
[41] Ringler, C. and E. Nkonya. 2012. “Sustainable Land and Water Management Policies.” In Soil, Water, and Agronomic Productivity, edited by R. Lal and B.A. Stewart, 523-535. Boca Raton: Taylor and Francis Group.
[42] IFPRI 2011.
[43] Ibid.
[44] Rosegrant, M.W., C. Ringler, T. Zhu. 2009. “Water for Agriculture: Maintaining Food Security Under Growing Scarcity.” Annual Review of Environment and Resources 34: 205-222.
[45] Ringler, C. and E. Nkonya. 2012.
[46] Rosegrant, M.W., C. Ringler, T. Zhu. 2009.
[47] Gustavsson, J., C. Cederberg, U. Sonesson, R. van Otterdijk, and A. Meybeck. 2011. Global Food Losses and Food Waste. Rome: FAO.
[48] Beddington J., M. Asaduzzaman, M. Clark, A. Fernández, M. Guillou, M. Jahn, L. Erda, T. Mamo, N. Van Bo, C.A. Nobre, R. Scholes, R. Sharma, J. Wakhungu. 2012. Achieving food security in the face of climate change: Final report from the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change. Copenhagen: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security.
[49] Gustavsson, J., C. Cederberg, U. Sonesson, R. van Otterdijk, and A. Meybeck. 2011.
[50] Ibid.


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